South Africa vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
South Africa 97.7%1.3% TongaTonga 3.2%95.8% South AfricaSouth Africa 96.7%2.3% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for South Africa v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are South Africa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 South Africa and 57 South Africa, half of them between 9 South Africa and 39 South Africa, with the middle run at 21 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 41 and 93 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-15 on a tight afternoon and 50-29 on an open one.
Why South Africa are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of South Africa winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps South Africa, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
South Africa 2512, Tonga 1454 — 1058 points, favouring South Africa
South Africa are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
South Africa3–0–0Tonga3 meetings, 1997 to 2023 · South Africa by 33.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-01 | South Africa 49–18 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Orange Velodrome |
| 2007-09-22 | South Africa 30–25 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Stade Bollaert-Delelis(neutral) |
| 1997-06-10 | South Africa 74–10 Tonga | — | Newlands Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.