South Africa vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
South Africa 95.7%3.3% TongaTonga 4.4%94.6% South AfricaSouth Africa 95.2%3.8% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are South Africa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 South Africa and 53 South Africa, with the middle run at 22 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 82 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-12 on a tight afternoon and 46-24 on an open one.
Why South Africa are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours South Africa, negative favours Tonga.
South Africa 2036, Tonga 938 — 1098 points, favouring South Africa
South Africa are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
South Africa2–0–0Tonga2 meetings, 2007 to 2023 · South Africa by 18.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-01 | South Africa 49–18 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Orange Velodrome |
| 2007-09-22 | South Africa 30–25 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Stade Bollaert-Delelis(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.