South Africa vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
South Africa 97.6%1.4% UruguayUruguay 4.7%94.3% South AfricaSouth Africa 96.0%3.0% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for South Africa v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are South Africa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 South Africa and 55 South Africa, half of them between 8 South Africa and 38 South Africa, with the middle run at 21 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 40 and 90 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-15 on a tight afternoon and 49-28 on an open one.
Why South Africa are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of South Africa winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps South Africa, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
South Africa 2512, Uruguay 1520 — 992 points, favouring South Africa
South Africa are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
South Africa3–0–0Uruguay3 meetings, 1999 to 2005 · South Africa by 77.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005-06-11 | South Africa 134–3 Uruguay | — | ABSA Stadium |
| 2003-10-11 | South Africa 72–6 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Patersons Stadium(neutral) |
| 1999-10-15 | South Africa 39–3 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Hampden Park(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.