Spain vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Spain 65.9%draw 2.7%31.4% TongaTonga 35.5%draw 2.7%61.8% SpainSpain 64.4%draw 2.7%32.9% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Spain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Tonga and 31 Spain, with the middle run at 6 Spain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Spain are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Spain, negative favours Tonga.
Spain 1064, Tonga 938 — 127 points, favouring Spain
Spain are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Spain1–0–2Tonga3 meetings, 2016 to 2024 · Tonga by 13.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-19 | Tonga 20–29 Spain | — | Teufaiva Stadium |
| 2022-11-05 | Spain 6–40 Tonga | — | Estadio Ciudad de Malaga |
| 2016-11-12 | Spain 13–28 Tonga | — | Universitaria Complutense |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.