Spain vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Spain 72.7%draw 2.8%24.5% TongaTonga 54.7%draw 2.8%42.5% SpainSpain 57.7%draw 2.8%39.5% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Spain v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Spain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Tonga and 26 Spain, half of them between level and 15 Spain, with the middle run at 5 Spain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Spain are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Spain winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Spain, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Spain 1566, Tonga 1454 — 112 points, favouring Spain
Spain are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Spain2–0–2Tonga4 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Tonga by 6.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Tonga 19–32 Spain | — | Clarke Stadium(neutral) |
| 2024-07-19 | Tonga 20–29 Spain | — | Teufaiva Stadium |
| 2022-11-05 | Spain 6–40 Tonga | — | Estadio Ciudad de Malaga |
| 2016-11-12 | Spain 13–28 Tonga | — | Universitaria Complutense |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.