Spain vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Spain 66.8%draw 3.0%30.2% UruguayUruguay 63.5%draw 2.9%33.6% SpainSpain 48.5%draw 3.0%48.5% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Spain v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Spain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Uruguay and 25 Spain, half of them between 3 Uruguay and 13 Spain, with the middle run at 4 Spain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Spain are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Spain winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Spain, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
Spain 1566, Uruguay 1520 — 46 points, favouring Spain
Spain are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Spain8–0–7Uruguay15 meetings, 1987 to 2024 · Uruguay by 1.5 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Spain by 3.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-09 | Spain 33–24 Uruguay | — | Estadio Nacional Complutense |
| 2020-11-06 | Uruguay 19–10 Spain | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 2020-11-01 | Uruguay 20–32 Spain | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 2019-06-22 | Uruguay 21–41 Spain | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 2017-06-18 | Uruguay 24–14 Spain | — | Estadio Charrúa |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.