Spain vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Spain 46.1%draw 2.8%51.1% UruguayUruguay 70.3%draw 2.8%26.9% SpainSpain 36.4%draw 2.8%60.8% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Spain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 31 Uruguay and 13 Spain, with the middle run at 1 Uruguay.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Spain are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Spain, negative favours Uruguay.
Spain 1064, Uruguay 1177 — 112 points, favouring Uruguay
Spain are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Spain3–0–1Uruguay4 meetings, 2019 to 2024 · Spain by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-09 | Spain 33–24 Uruguay | — | Estadio Nacional Complutense |
| 2020-11-06 | Uruguay 19–10 Spain | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 2020-11-01 | Uruguay 20–32 Spain | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 2019-06-22 | Uruguay 21–41 Spain | — | Estadio Charrua |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.