Stade Francais Paris vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stade Francais Paris 49.0%draw 2.5%48.5% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 80.2%draw 2.5%17.3% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 28.7%draw 2.5%68.8% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Stade Francais Paris v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Francais Paris wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stade Toulousain and 18 Stade Francais Paris, half of them between 7 Stade Toulousain and 8 Stade Francais Paris, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Stade Francais Paris are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stade Francais Paris winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stade Francais Paris, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Stade Francais Paris 1731, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 261 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Stade Francais Paris are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Stade Francais Paris are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Stade Toulousain are on 48.5%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Stade Francais Paris7–1–14Stade Toulousain22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 6.9 on average
Last 10: 4–1–5 · Stade Toulousain by 3.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Stade Francais Paris 9–13 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-11-01 | Stade Toulousain 29–17 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-04-20 | Stade Francais Paris 21–27 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-12-29 | Stade Toulousain 38–23 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2024-05-12 | Stade Toulousain 49–18 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.