Stade Francais Paris vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stade Francais Paris 53.5%draw 2.5%44.0% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 63.9%draw 2.5%33.6% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 43.4%draw 2.5%54.1% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Francais Paris wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Stade Toulousain and 22 Stade Francais Paris, with the middle run at 1 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Stade Francais Paris are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Stade Francais Paris, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Stade Francais Paris 1775, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 88 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Stade Francais Paris are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stade Francais Paris7–2–14Stade Toulousain23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 6.6 on average
Last 10: 4–1–5 · Stade Toulousain by 3.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Stade Francais Paris 9–13 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-11-01 | Stade Toulousain 29–17 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-04-20 | Stade Francais Paris 21–27 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-12-29 | Stade Toulousain 38–23 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2024-05-12 | Stade Toulousain 49–18 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.