Stade Francais Paris vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stade Francais Paris 49.7%draw 2.5%47.8% StormersStormers 71.3%draw 2.5%26.2% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 34.8%draw 2.5%62.7% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Stade Francais Paris v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Francais Paris wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Stormers and 18 Stade Francais Paris, half of them between 7 Stormers and 9 Stade Francais Paris, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Stade Francais Paris are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stade Francais Paris winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stade Francais Paris, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Stade Francais Paris 1731, Stormers 1845 — 114 points, favouring Stormers
Stade Francais Paris are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Stade Francais Paris are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Stormers are on 47.8%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Stade Francais Paris0–0–1Stormers1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Stormers by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-20 | Stade Francais Paris 20–24 Stormers | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.