Stade Francais Paris vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Toulon host Stade Francais Paris on Saturday 7 November at Stade Mayol, Toulon, so Toulon are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Stade Francais Paris 72.7%draw 2.5%24.8% ToulonToulon 68.3%draw 2.5%29.2% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 48.2%draw 2.5%49.3% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Toulon v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Toulon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Stade Francais Paris and 24 Toulon, half of them between 2 Stade Francais Paris and 14 Toulon, with the middle run at 5 Toulon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Toulon are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Toulon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Toulon, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Toulon 1663, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 68 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Toulon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stade Francais Paris9–0–14Toulon23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Toulon by 4.3 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Toulon by 5.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Toulon 27–46 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-11-23 | Stade Francais Paris 51–24 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-02-22 | Toulon 24–6 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-09-22 | Stade Francais Paris 10–14 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-06-08 | Stade Francais Paris 23–20 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.