Stade Francais Paris vs US Montauban
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stade Francais Paris 91.3%draw 2.5%6.2% US MontaubanStade Francais Paris 87.8%draw 2.5%9.7% US MontaubanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Francais Paris wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Stade Francais Paris and 41 Stade Francais Paris, with the middle run at 14 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-15 on a tight afternoon and 41-27 on an open one.
Why Stade Francais Paris are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Stade Francais Paris, negative favours US Montauban.
Stade Francais Paris 1775, US Montauban 824 — 951 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Stade Francais Paris are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stade Francais Paris2–0–0US Montauban2 meetings, 2025 to 2026 · Stade Francais Paris by 35.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | US Montauban 25–73 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Sapiac |
| 2025-09-06 | Stade Francais Paris 47–24 US Montauban | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.