Stade Francais Paris vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stade Francais Paris 74.8%draw 2.5%22.7% VannesStade Francais Paris 65.6%draw 2.5%31.9% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Francais Paris wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Vannes and 33 Stade Francais Paris, with the middle run at 9 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Stade Francais Paris are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Stade Francais Paris, negative favours Vannes.
Stade Francais Paris 1775, Vannes 1510 — 265 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Stade Francais Paris are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stade Francais Paris1–0–1Vannes2 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Vannes by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-25 | Vannes 33–28 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
| 2024-09-14 | Stade Francais Paris 34–31 Vannes | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.