Stade Francais Paris vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stade Francais Paris 88.3%draw 2.5%9.2% VannesVannes 41.6%draw 2.5%55.9% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 74.1%draw 2.5%23.4% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Stade Francais Paris v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Francais Paris wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 35 Stade Francais Paris, half of them between 4 Stade Francais Paris and 24 Stade Francais Paris, with the middle run at 12 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 37-25 on an open one.
Why Stade Francais Paris are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stade Francais Paris winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stade Francais Paris, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
Stade Francais Paris 1731, Vannes 1280 — 451 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Stade Francais Paris are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stade Francais Paris1–0–1Vannes2 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Vannes by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-25 | Vannes 33–28 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
| 2024-09-14 | Stade Francais Paris 34–31 Vannes | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.