Stade Francais Paris vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stade Francais Paris 89.4%draw 2.5%8.1% ZebreZebre 20.9%draw 2.5%76.6% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 83.6%draw 2.5%13.9% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Stade Francais Paris v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Francais Paris wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 37 Stade Francais Paris, half of them between 4 Stade Francais Paris and 25 Stade Francais Paris, with the middle run at 13 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-15 on a tight afternoon and 39-26 on an open one.
Why Stade Francais Paris are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stade Francais Paris winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stade Francais Paris, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Stade Francais Paris 1731, Zebre 1071 — 660 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Stade Francais Paris are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stade Francais Paris1–0–1Zebre2 meetings, 2019 to 2020 · Zebre by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-11 | Stade Francais Paris 24–29 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2019-11-23 | Zebre 12–13 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.