Stade Toulousain vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stade Toulousain 79.7%draw 2.5%17.8% ToulonToulon 31.3%draw 2.5%66.2% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 73.9%draw 2.5%23.6% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Toulousain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Toulon and 33 Stade Toulousain, with the middle run at 10 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Stade Toulousain are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Stade Toulousain, negative favours Toulon.
Stade Toulousain 1863, Toulon 1435 — 429 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Stade Toulousain are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stade Toulousain13–1–8Toulon22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 9.5 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Stade Toulousain by 16.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Toulon 27–51 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Orange Velodrome |
| 2025-10-26 | Stade Toulousain 59–24 Toulon | Top 14 | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2025-05-10 | Toulon 16–50 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Orange Velodrome |
| 2025-04-13 | Toulon 18–21 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-10-27 | Stade Toulousain 57–5 Toulon | Top 14 | Stadium de Toulouse |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.