Stade Toulousain vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stade Toulousain 82.4%draw 2.5%15.1% ToulonToulon 50.7%draw 2.5%46.8% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 67.3%draw 2.5%30.2% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Stade Toulousain v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Toulousain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Toulon and 35 Stade Toulousain, half of them between 2 Stade Toulousain and 22 Stade Toulousain, with the middle run at 11 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Stade Toulousain are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stade Toulousain winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stade Toulousain, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Stade Toulousain 1992, Toulon 1663 — 329 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Stade Toulousain are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stade Toulousain14–1–8Toulon23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 9.1 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Stade Toulousain by 16.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Toulon 27–51 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Orange Velodrome |
| 2025-10-26 | Stade Toulousain 59–24 Toulon | Top 14 | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2025-05-10 | Toulon 16–50 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Orange Velodrome |
| 2025-04-13 | Toulon 18–21 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-10-27 | Stade Toulousain 57–5 Toulon | Top 14 | Stadium de Toulouse |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.