Stade Toulousain vs US Montauban
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stade Toulousain 91.7%draw 2.5%5.8% US MontaubanStade Toulousain 87.9%draw 2.5%9.6% US MontaubanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Toulousain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Stade Toulousain and 41 Stade Toulousain, with the middle run at 14 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-15 on a tight afternoon and 41-27 on an open one.
Why Stade Toulousain are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Stade Toulousain, negative favours US Montauban.
Stade Toulousain 1863, US Montauban 824 — 1039 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Stade Toulousain are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stade Toulousain1–0–0US Montauban1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Stade Toulousain by 42.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | US Montauban 7–49 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Sapiac |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.