Stade Toulousain vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stade Toulousain 87.7%draw 2.5%9.8% VannesVannes 20.7%draw 2.5%76.8% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 83.4%draw 2.5%14.1% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Stade Toulousain v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Toulousain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 39 Stade Toulousain, half of them between 4 Stade Toulousain and 26 Stade Toulousain, with the middle run at 13 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 38-25 on an open one.
Why Stade Toulousain are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stade Toulousain winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stade Toulousain, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
Stade Toulousain 1992, Vannes 1280 — 712 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Stade Toulousain are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stade Toulousain3–0–0Vannes3 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 24.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Vannes 23–29 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Roazhon Park |
| 2025-03-01 | Stade Toulousain 63–21 Vannes | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-09-08 | Vannes 18–43 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.