Stade Toulousain vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stade Toulousain 90.7%draw 2.5%6.8% ZebreZebre 14.0%draw 2.5%83.5% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 87.4%draw 2.5%10.1% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Stade Toulousain v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Toulousain wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Stade Toulousain and 41 Stade Toulousain, half of them between 5 Stade Toulousain and 27 Stade Toulousain, with the middle run at 14 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-15 on a tight afternoon and 40-26 on an open one.
Why Stade Toulousain are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stade Toulousain winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stade Toulousain, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Stade Toulousain 1992, Zebre 1071 — 921 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Stade Toulousain are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stade Toulousain2–0–0Zebre2 meetings, 2016 to 2016 · Stade Toulousain by 34.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-17 | Stade Toulousain 54–15 Zebre | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2016-12-10 | Zebre 6–36 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.