Stormers vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stormers 78.0%draw 2.5%19.5% ToulonToulon 52.3%draw 2.5%45.2% StormersStormers 62.2%draw 2.5%35.3% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Stormers v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stormers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Toulon and 33 Stormers, half of them between 1 Stormers and 20 Stormers, with the middle run at 9 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Stormers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stormers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stormers, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Stormers 1845, Toulon 1663 — 182 points, favouring Stormers
Stormers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stormers0–0–2Toulon2 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Toulon by 5.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Toulon 28–27 Stormers | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-12-07 | Stormers 14–24 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.