Stormers vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stormers 78.6%draw 2.5%18.9% Western ForceWestern Force 43.4%draw 2.5%54.1% StormersStormers 66.7%draw 2.5%30.8% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stormers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Western Force and 35 Stormers, with the middle run at 10 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-25 on an open one.
Why Stormers are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Stormers, negative favours Western Force.
Stormers 1716, Western Force 1463 — 253 points, favouring Stormers
Stormers are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stormers2–0–0Western Force2 meetings, 2015 to 2016 · Stormers by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-07-09 | Western Force 3–22 Stormers | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2015-04-18 | Western Force 6–13 Stormers | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.