Stormers vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stormers 89.7%draw 2.5%7.8% ZebreZebre 19.2%draw 2.5%78.3% StormersStormers 84.3%draw 2.5%13.2% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Stormers v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stormers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 39 Stormers, half of them between 5 Stormers and 26 Stormers, with the middle run at 14 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-13 on a tight afternoon and 38-24 on an open one.
Why Stormers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stormers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stormers, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Stormers 1845, Zebre 1071 — 775 points, favouring Stormers
Stormers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stormers5–0–0Zebre5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Stormers by 27.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Zebre 13–31 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-10-05 | Zebre 5–36 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2023-12-02 | Stormers 31–7 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Danie Craven Stadium |
| 2022-10-08 | Zebre 20–37 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-03-13 | Stormers 55–7 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Danie Craven Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.