Stormers vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stormers 80.6%draw 2.5%16.9% ZebreZebre 24.7%draw 2.5%72.8% StormersStormers 77.0%draw 2.5%20.5% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stormers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Zebre and 40 Stormers, with the middle run at 13 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-26 on an open one.
Why Stormers are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Stormers, negative favours Zebre.
Stormers 1716, Zebre 1309 — 407 points, favouring Stormers
Stormers are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Stormers5–0–0Zebre5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Stormers by 27.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Zebre 13–31 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-10-05 | Zebre 5–36 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2023-12-02 | Stormers 31–7 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Danie Craven Stadium |
| 2022-10-08 | Zebre 20–37 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-03-13 | Stormers 55–7 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Danie Craven Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.