Tonga vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Tonga 32.8%draw 2.1%65.1% UruguayUruguay 77.7%draw 2.1%20.2% TongaTonga 26.4%draw 2.1%71.5% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Tonga wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 41 Uruguay and 10 Tonga, with the middle run at 8 Uruguay.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Tonga are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Tonga, negative favours Uruguay.
Tonga 938, Uruguay 1177 — 239 points, favouring Uruguay
Tonga are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Tonga1–0–0Uruguay1 meeting, 2022 to 2022 · Tonga by 24.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-19 | Tonga 43–19 Uruguay | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.