Tonga vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Tonga 58.0%draw 2.9%39.1% UruguayUruguay 64.9%draw 2.9%32.2% TongaTonga 45.0%draw 2.9%52.1% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Tonga v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Tonga wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Uruguay and 37 Tonga, half of them between 4 Uruguay and 21 Tonga, with the middle run at 4 Tonga.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Tonga are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Tonga winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Tonga, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
Tonga 1454, Uruguay 1520 — 66 points, favouring Uruguay
Tonga are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Tonga1–0–0Uruguay1 meeting, 2022 to 2022 · Tonga by 24.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-19 | Tonga 43–19 Uruguay | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.