Toulon vs US Montauban
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Toulon 84.9%draw 2.5%12.6% US MontaubanToulon 81.9%draw 2.5%15.6% US MontaubanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Toulon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 US Montauban and 41 Toulon, with the middle run at 13 Toulon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-15 on a tight afternoon and 40-27 on an open one.
Why Toulon are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Toulon, negative favours US Montauban.
Toulon 1435, US Montauban 824 — 610 points, favouring Toulon
Toulon are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Toulon2–0–0US Montauban2 meetings, 2025 to 2026 · Toulon by 25.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | US Montauban 22–47 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Sapiac |
| 2025-11-29 | Toulon 54–28 US Montauban | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.