Toulon vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Toulon 86.4%draw 2.5%11.1% VannesVannes 41.5%draw 2.5%56.0% ToulonToulon 73.2%draw 2.5%24.3% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Toulon v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Toulon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Vannes and 36 Toulon, half of them between 4 Toulon and 25 Toulon, with the middle run at 12 Toulon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 37-25 on an open one.
Why Toulon are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Toulon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Toulon, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
Toulon 1663, Vannes 1280 — 383 points, favouring Toulon
Toulon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Toulon2–0–1Vannes3 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Toulon by 14.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Toulon 28–10 Vannes | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-04-26 | Vannes 29–19 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
| 2024-09-28 | Toulon 54–19 Vannes | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.