Toulon vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Toulon 88.2%draw 2.5%9.3% ZebreZebre 27.3%draw 2.5%70.2% ToulonToulon 79.7%draw 2.5%17.8% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Toulon v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Toulon wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 38 Toulon, half of them between 4 Toulon and 25 Toulon, with the middle run at 13 Toulon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 38-25 on an open one.
Why Toulon are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Toulon winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Toulon, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Toulon 1663, Zebre 1071 — 592 points, favouring Toulon
Toulon are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Toulon3–0–0Zebre3 meetings, 2021 to 2023 · Toulon by 8.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-20 | Toulon 14–5 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2022-12-10 | Zebre 21–24 Toulon | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2021-12-17 | Toulon 28–14 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.