US Montauban vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Zebre 77.9%draw 2.5%19.6% US MontaubanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are US Montauban wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 Zebre and 13 US Montauban, with the middle run at 6 Zebre.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-18 on a tight afternoon and 36-30 on an open one.
Why US Montauban are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours US Montauban, negative favours Zebre.
US Montauban 824, Zebre 1309 — 484 points, favouring Zebre
US Montauban are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Zebre by 24.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Zebre 41–17 US Montauban | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.