South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 22
12 July 2003DHL Newlands, Cape Town
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 24 m
- Temperature
- 12.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 12 of the 45 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Lawrence Sephaka
- 2Danie Coetzee
- 3Richard Bands
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Corne Krige(c)-5.2
- 7Wikus van Heerden
- 8Juan Smith+0.6
- 9Joost van der Westhuizen
- 10Louis Koen
- 11Thinus Delport
- 12De Wet Barry+0.2
- 13Marius Joubert
- 14Stefan Terblanche-3.6
- 15Jaco van der Westhuyzen+3.4
Replacements
- 16Dale Santon
- 17Robbie Kempson
- 18Selborne Boome
- 19Pedrie Wannenburg
- 20Craig Davidson
- 21Gcobani Bobo
- 22Brent Russell
Australia
- 1Bill Young
- 2Brendan Cannon
- 3Patricio Noriega
- 4David Giffin+0.8
- 5Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 6David Lyons-0.2
- 7Phil Waugh
- 8Toutai Kefu
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Elton Flatley
- 11Joe Roff-6.5
- 12Steve Kefu
- 13Mat Rogers
- 14Wendell Sailor
- 15Matt Burke
Replacements
- 0Steve R. Walsh
- 16Adam Freier
- 17Ben Darwin
- 18Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 19Owen Finegan
- 20Chris Whitaker
- 21Stephen Larkham
- 22Lote Tuqiri
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.