Australia v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 8
10 October 2003Accor Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 10:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 12.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 9 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Bill Young
- 2Brendan Cannon
- 3Al Baxter
- 4David Giffin+0.8
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6George Smith
- 7Phil Waugh
- 8David Lyons-0.2
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Joe Roff-6.5
- 12Elton Flatley
- 13Matt Burke
- 14Wendell Sailor
- 15Mat Rogers
Replacements
- 16Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 17Ben Darwin
- 18Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 19Matt Cockbain
- 20Chris Whitaker
- 21Matt Giteau+3.8
- 22Lote Tuqiri
Argentina
- 1Roberto Grau
- 2Mario Ledesma Arocena
- 3Omar Hasan Jalil
- 4Ignacio Fernandez Lobbe
- 5Patricio Albacete
- 6Santiago Phelan
- 7Rolando Martin
- 8Gonzalo Longo Elia
- 9Agustin Pichot(c)
- 10Felipe Contepomi-2.0
- 11Diego Albanese
- 12Jose Orengo
- 13Manuel Contepomi
- 14Jose Nunez Piossek
- 15Ignacio Corleto
Replacements
- 16Federico Mendez Azpillaga
- 17Mauricio Reggiardo
- 18Rimas Alvarez Kairelis
- 19Martin Durand
- 20Nicolas Fernandez Miranda
- 21Gonzalo Quesada
- 22Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0% | Possession | 33.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 511m | Carry metres | 384m |
| 11 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 32 | Defenders beaten | 18 |
| 11 | Offloads | 7 |
| 121 | Passes | 89 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 113 | Tackles made | 86 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 73.0% |
| 18 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 32 |
| 1 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 43.8% |
| 5 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 12 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 53 | Rucks won | 67 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kicks from hand | 19 |
| 585m | Kick metres | 585m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.