Scotland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 15
13 March 2010Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v England
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 5.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 5Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 6Kelly Brown+3.1
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 9Chris Cusiter(c)-5.1
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Max Evans
- 12Graeme Morrison+2.7
- 13Nick de Luca
- 14Sean Lamont+5.6
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Geoff Cross-3.7
- 18Nathan Hines-2.0
- 19Alan MacDonald
- 20Rory Lawson-3.0
- 21Phil Godman
- 22Simon Danielli+0.1
England
- 1Tim Payne
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Louis Deacon-1.1
- 5Steve Borthwick(c)-11.3
- 6James Haskell+0.9
- 7Joe Worsley+4.0
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ugo Monye
- 12Riki Flutey
- 13Mathew Tait+7.9
- 14Mark Cueto+0.8
- 15Delon Armitage
Replacements
- 16Steve Thompson+3.2
- 17David Wilson+7.0
- 18Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 19Lewis Moody+1.4
- 20Ben Youngs+2.3
- 21Toby Flood-1.2
- 22Ben Foden
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.