Argentina v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 24
27 August 2016Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena, Salta
What the model says about Argentina v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 19:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 1177 m
- Temperature
- 17.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-24.82090,-65.41912 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 4Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 8Facundo Isa+1.6
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Manuel Montero
- 12Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 13Matias Orlando-3.8
- 14Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Felipe Arregui
- 18Enrique Pieretto-5.3
- 19Guido Petti-1.9
- 20Javier Ortega Desio
- 21Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 22Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias-5.1
- 23Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 3Vincent Koch-5.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Oupa Mohoje
- 8Warren Whiteley
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Lionel Mapoe
- 14Ruan Combrinck
- 15Johan Goosen
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Lourens Adriaanse
- 19Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 20Jaco Kriel
- 21Rudy Paige
- 22Morne Steyn-3.6
- 23Jesse Kriel-6.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.