South Africa v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
37 – 15
19 August 2017Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth
What the model says about South Africa v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 16 m
- Temperature
- 13.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 39 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-33.93779,25.59941 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Coenie Oosthuizen
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Jaco Kriel
- 8Uzair Cassiem
- 9Ross Cronje
- 10Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 11Courtnall Skosan
- 12Jan Serfontein+12.9
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Raymond Rhule
- 15Andries Coetzee
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 19Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 20Jean-Luc du Preez
- 21Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 22Curwin Bosch
- 23Damian de Allende-0.1
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Enrique Pieretto-5.3
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 8Leonardo Senatore+4.8
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Emiliano Boffelli
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matias Orlando-3.8
- 14Ramiro Moyano
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Lucas Noguera Paz
- 18Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 19Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 20Javier Ortega Desio
- 21Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 22Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 23Matías Moroni-12.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.