Argentina v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 41
26 August 2017Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena, Salta
What the model says about Argentina v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 19:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 1177 m
- Temperature
- 17.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-24.82090,-65.41912 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Lucas Noguera Paz
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 4Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 8Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 11Emiliano Boffelli
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matias Orlando-3.8
- 14Ramiro Moyano
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Santiago Garcia Botta
- 18Enrique Pieretto-5.3
- 19Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 20Javier Ortega Desio
- 21Martin Landajo
- 22Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 23Matías Moroni-12.4
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Coenie Oosthuizen
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Jaco Kriel
- 8Uzair Cassiem
- 9Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 10Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 11Courtnall Skosan
- 12Jan Serfontein+12.9
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Raymond Rhule
- 15Andries Coetzee
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 19Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 20Jean-Luc du Preez
- 21Rudy Paige
- 22Curwin Bosch
- 23Damian de Allende-0.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 5 |
| 2 | Conversions | 4 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.