Scotland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
25 – 13
24 February 2018Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v England
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 0.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Gordon Reid+0.3
- 2Stuart McInally-3.8
- 3Simon Berghan-0.6
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Sean Maitland+4.2
- 12Peter Horne+2.1
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20David Denton-0.1
- 21Ali Price-11.2
- 22Nick Grigg
- 23Blair Kinghorn-12.3
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Maro Itoje-12.4
- 6Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 7Chris Robshaw
- 8Nathan Hughes
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Harry Williams
- 19George Kruis+4.6
- 20Sam Underhill+3.4
- 21Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 22Ben Te'o
- 23Jack Nowell+4.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.