South Africa v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 21
18 August 2018Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban
What the model says about South Africa v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 13.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.7 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 8Warren Whiteley
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Aphiwe Dyantyi
- 12André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 19Marvin Orie
- 20Marco van Staden-5.4
- 21Embrose Papier
- 22Lionel Mapoe
- 23Damian Willemse-5.4
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Juan Figallo-4.0
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Javier Ortega Desio
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Ramiro Moyano
- 12Bautista Ezcurra
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Emiliano Boffelli
Replacements
- 16Diego Fortuny
- 17Santiago Garcia Botta
- 18Santiago Medrano
- 19Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 20Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 21Martin Landajo
- 22Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias-5.1
- 23Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.