France v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 10
23 February 2019Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 8.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Demba Bamba-4.4
- 4Felix Lambey
- 5Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 6Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 7Arthur Iturria
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Yoann Huget+2.1
- 12Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Camille Chat-3.8
- 17Etienne Falgoux
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Paul Willemse-0.7
- 20Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 21Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 22Anthony Belleau
- 23Maxime Médard+1.5
Scotland
- 1Allan Dell-3.1
- 2Stuart McInally-3.8
- 3Simon Berghan-0.6
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 7Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 8Josh Strauss+6.2
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Peter Horne+2.1
- 11Sean Maitland+4.2
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Nick Grigg
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Alex Allan
- 18Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 19Ben Toolis
- 20Gary Graham
- 21Ali Price-11.2
- 22Adam Hastings+8.7
- 23Darcy Graham-3.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.