Argentina v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 46
10 August 2019Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena, Salta
What the model says about Argentina v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 19:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 1177 m
- Temperature
- 8.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-24.82090,-65.41912 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Juan Figallo-4.0
- 4Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 5Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Javier Ortega Desio
- 8Facundo Isa+1.6
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Ramiro Moyano
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 15Emiliano Boffelli
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Santiago Medrano
- 19Guido Petti-1.9
- 20Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 21Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 22Benjamin Urdapilleta
- 23Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Francois Louw+9.7
- 21Herschel Jantjies+3.4
- 22Francois Steyn+7.8
- 23Jesse Kriel-6.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 5 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.