France v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 21
21 September 2019Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo · neutral venue
What the model says about France v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 07:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 66 m
- Temperature
- 20.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Guilhem Guirado(c)+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Arthur Iturria
- 5Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 6Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Yoann Huget+2.1
- 12Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 13Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Maxime Médard+1.5
Replacements
- 16Camille Chat-3.8
- 17Cyril Baille+5.5
- 18Demba Bamba-4.4
- 19Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 20Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 21Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 22Camille Lopez+2.7
- 23Thomas Ramos+6.3
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Juan Figallo-4.0
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera(c)-1.1
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Javier Ortega Desio
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Ramiro Moyano
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matias Orlando-3.8
- 14Matías Moroni-12.4
- 15Emiliano Boffelli
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 42.0% | Possession | 58.0% |
| 38.0% | Territory | 62.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 435m | Carry metres | 308m |
| 15 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 25 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 13 | Offloads | 8 |
| 110 | Passes | 113 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 123 | Tackles made | 105 |
| 91.0% | Tackle success | 81.0% |
| 12 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 25 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 66.7% | Lineout success | — |
| 4 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 2 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Rucks won | 84 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kicks from hand | 25 |
| 604m | Kick metres | 673m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 5 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.