Scotland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
6 – 13
8 February 2020Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v England
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 6.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 15.0 mm
- Wind
- 44 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2Fraser Brown-1.1
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Scott Cummings+2.0
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Adam Hastings+8.7
- 11Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Stuart McInally-3.8
- 17Allan Dell-3.1
- 18Simon Berghan-0.6
- 19Ben Toolis
- 20Nick Haining
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Rory Hutchinson
- 23Chris Harris+7.0
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6Lewis Ludlam+8.2
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Tom Curry+0.8
- 9Willi Heinz
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Elliot Daly-1.4
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Jonny May-3.0
- 15George Furbank
Replacements
- 16Tom Dunn
- 17Ellis Genge-12.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 20Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 21Ben Earl+3.7
- 22Ben Youngs+2.3
- 23Ollie Devoto
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.