South Africa v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 12
14 August 2021Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth
What the model says about South Africa v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 16 m
- Temperature
- 12.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-33.93779,25.59941 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Joseph Dweba
- 3Wilco Louw-1.7
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 11Aphelele Fassi+0.1
- 12Francois Steyn+7.8
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Sbu Nkosi
- 15Damian Willemse-5.4
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Marvin Orie
- 20Marco van Staden-5.4
- 21Daniel du Preez
- 22Jaden Hendrikse+5.8
- 23Morne Steyn-3.6
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Julián Montoya(c)
- 3Francisco Gomez Kodela+5.7
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Facundo Isa+1.6
- 8Rodrigo Bruni-7.2
- 9Felipe Ezcurra
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Matías Moroni-12.4
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Santiago Carreras
Replacements
- 16Facundo Bosch
- 17Carlos Muzzio
- 18Santiago Medrano
- 19Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 20Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 21Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 22Domingo Miotti
- 23Sebastian Cancelliere
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.