Scotland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 17
5 February 2022Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v England
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 4.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 13.0 mm
- Wind
- 40 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Jonny Gray-7.0
- 5Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 6Jamie Ritchie(c)-7.2
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Finn Russell(c)-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Chris Harris+7.0
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Stuart Hogg(c)
Replacements
- 16Stuart McInally-3.8
- 17Pierre Schoeman
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Sam Skinner-0.5
- 20Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 21Ben White-12.7
- 22Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 23Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Nick Isiekwe
- 6Lewis Ludlam+8.2
- 7Tom Curry(c)+0.8
- 8Sam Simmonds
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Marcus Smith-0.6
- 11Joe Marchant
- 12Henry Slade0.0
- 13Elliot Daly-1.4
- 14Max Malins
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19Charlie Ewels-2.7
- 20Alex Dombrandt-10.3
- 21Harry Randall
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Jack Nowell+4.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.