Argentina v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 31
16 July 2022Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades
What the model says about Argentina v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 19:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 186 m
- Temperature
- 11.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.3 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-27.76602,-64.26986 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 8Facundo Isa+1.6
- 9Lautaro Bazan Velez-15.1
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Emiliano Boffelli
- 12Matías Moroni-12.4
- 13Matias Orlando-3.8
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 18Francisco Gomez Kodela+5.7
- 19Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 20Juan Martín González
- 21Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 22Tomas Albornoz+6.7
- 23Lucio Cinti-5.6
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Scott Cummings+2.0
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Rory Darge-13.6
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Mark Bennett-0.3
- 14Rufus McLean
- 15Ollie Smith
Replacements
- 16Dave Cherry-4.9
- 17Pierre Schoeman
- 18Javan Sebastian
- 19Glen Young
- 20Andy Onyeama-Christie
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Ross Thompson
- 23Sam Johnson
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 4 |
| 4 | Conversions | 4 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.