Argentina v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 41
6 August 2022Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza
What the model says about Argentina v Australia
- Kick-off
- 19:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 830 m
- Temperature
- 9.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-32.88968,-68.87990 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Julián Montoya(c)
- 3Francisco Gomez Kodela+5.7
- 4Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Juan Martín González
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Pablo Matera-1.1
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Emiliano Boffelli
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matias Orlando-3.8
- 14Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 17Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 18Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 19Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 20Rodrigo Bruni-7.2
- 21Lautaro Bazan Velez-15.1
- 22Tomas Albornoz+6.7
- 23Matías Moroni-12.4
Australia
- 1James Slipper(c)-3.3
- 2Folau Fainga'a
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Darcy Swain
- 5Matt Philip
- 6Jed Holloway
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Hunter Paisami+0.8
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Jordan Petaia
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Lachlan Lonergan
- 17Matt Gibbon
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 19Nick Frost-0.3
- 20Rob Leota
- 21Pete Samu-4.3
- 22Jake Gordon-0.7
- 23Reece Hodge
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 5 |
| 2 | Conversions | 4 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.