Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
8 – 24
3 September 2022Allianz Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 09:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 38 m
- Temperature
- 14.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 8.0 mm
- Wind
- 33 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1James Slipper(c)-3.3
- 2Folau Fainga'a
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Rory Arnold-6.0
- 5Matt Philip
- 6Jed Holloway
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10Noah Lolesio+7.8
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Hunter Paisami+0.8
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Tom Wright+11.9
- 15Reece Hodge
Replacements
- 16Dave Porecki
- 17Scott Sio+1.4
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 19Darcy Swain
- 20Rob Leota
- 21Pete Samu-4.3
- 22Jake Gordon-0.7
- 23Andrew Kellaway+4.5
South Africa
- 1Steven Kitshoff
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Franco Mostert-1.0
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Jaden Hendrikse+5.8
- 10Damian Willemse-5.4
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Canan Moodie+6.3
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Deon Fourie
- 17Ox Nché-5.2
- 18Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 19Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 20Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 21Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 22Francois Steyn+7.8
- 23Warrick Gelant
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 4 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.