South Africa v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
38 – 21
24 September 2022Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban
What the model says about South Africa v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 19.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 47 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Steven Kitshoff
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Jaden Hendrikse+5.8
- 10Francois Steyn+7.8
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Canan Moodie+6.3
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Ox Nché-5.2
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Franco Mostert-1.0
- 20Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 21Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 22Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 23Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Julián Montoya(c)
- 3Eduardo Bello
- 4Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Juan Martín González
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Pablo Matera-1.1
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Juan Imhoff+8.0
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Emiliano Boffelli
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 19Guido Petti-1.9
- 20Pedro Rubiolo
- 20Pedro Rubiolo
- 21Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 22Benjamin Urdapilleta
- 23Bautista Delguy+4.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 4 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 3 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.