France v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 21
26 February 2023Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 1.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Mohamed Haouas
- 4Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 5Paul Willemse-0.7
- 6Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont(c)+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Ethan Dumortier
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Gaëtan Barlot
- 17Reda Wardi+2.8
- 18Sipili Falatea
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20François Cros+9.1
- 21Sekou Macalou
- 22Baptiste Couilloud
- 23Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Grant Gilchrist(c)-0.4
- 6Jamie Ritchie(c)-7.2
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Jonny Gray-7.0
- 20Sam Skinner-0.5
- 21Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 22Ali Price-11.2
- 23Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.