England v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
10 – 53
11 March 2023Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v France
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 2.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge(c)-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 6Lewis Ludlam+8.2
- 7Jack Willis
- 8Alex Dombrandt-10.3
- 9Jack van Poortvliet+2.8
- 10Marcus Smith-0.6
- 11Anthony Watson-0.9
- 12Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Max Malins
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Jack Walker
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19David Ribbans
- 20Ben Curry
- 21Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 22Owen Farrell+1.1
- 23Henry Arundell
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 4Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 5Paul Willemse-0.7
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont(c)+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Ethan Dumortier
- 12Jonathan Danty+3.7
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 17Reda Wardi+2.8
- 18Sipili Falatea
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Sekou Macalou
- 21Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 22Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 23Melvyn Jaminet
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 7 |
| 1 | Conversions | 6 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.