Australia v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 34
15 July 2023CommBank Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 09:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 16.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1James Slipper(c)-3.3
- 2Dave Porecki
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Richie Arnold
- 5Will Skelton+6.1
- 6Jed Holloway
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Mark Nawaqanitawase
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Jordan Uelese
- 17Angus Bell+4.6
- 18Pone Fa'amausili
- 19Matt Philip
- 20Rob Leota
- 21Josh Kemeny
- 22Tate McDermott+4.9
- 23Carter Gordon
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Julián Montoya(c)
- 3Francisco Gomez Kodela+5.7
- 4Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 8Juan Martín González
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Rodrigo Isgró-3.4
- 15Emiliano Boffelli
Replacements
- 16Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 17Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 18Eduardo Bello
- 19Lucas Paulos
- 20Rodrigo Bruni-7.2
- 21Lautaro Bazan Velez-15.1
- 22Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 23Matías Moroni-12.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 4 |
| 4 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.