South Africa v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 21
29 July 2023Ellis Park, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 1716 m
- Temperature
- 13.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Steven Kitshoff
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Marvin Orie
- 6Marco van Staden-5.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Duane Vermeulen(c)+6.9
- 9Grant Williams-4.8
- 10Manie Libbok-3.8
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 20RG Snyman+8.1
- 21Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 22Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 23Damian Willemse-5.4
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Julián Montoya(c)
- 3Francisco Gomez Kodela+5.7
- 4Lucas Paulos
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 8Juan Martín González
- 9Lautaro Bazan Velez-15.1
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Juan Imhoff+8.0
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 18Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 19Pedro Rubiolo
- 20Facundo Isa+1.6
- 21Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 22Tomas Albornoz+6.7
- 23Matías Moroni-12.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.