South Africa v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 3
10 September 2023Orange Velodrome, Marseille · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 8 m
- Temperature
- 22.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 42 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Steven Kitshoff
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Manie Libbok-3.8
- 11Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 15Damian Willemse-5.4
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Ox Nché-5.2
- 18Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Marco van Staden-5.4
- 21Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 22Grant Williams-4.8
- 23Willie le Roux+4.6
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 6Jamie Ritchie(c)-7.2
- 7Rory Darge-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16Dave Cherry-4.9
- 17Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Scott Cummings+2.0
- 20Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 21Ali Price-11.2
- 22Cameron Redpath
- 23Ollie Smith
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 54.0% | Possession | 46.0% |
| 59.0% | Territory | 41.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 602m | Carry metres | 229m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 17 | Defenders beaten | 22 |
| 3 | Offloads | 5 |
| 133 | Passes | 139 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 89 | Tackles made | 119 |
| 72.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 22 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 17 |
| 4 | Dominant tackles | 11 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | Lineout success | 76.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 71.0% | Scrum success | 58.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 94.0% |
| 66 | Rucks won | 58 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kicks from hand | 28 |
| 613m | Kick metres | 1020m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.