France v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 29
15 October 2023Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 9.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 41 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Cameron Woki-3.5
- 5Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 6Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont(c)+8.4
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Jonathan Danty+3.7
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Pierre Bourgarit
- 17Reda Wardi+2.8
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20François Cros+9.1
- 21Sekou Macalou
- 22Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 23Yoram Moefana+7.0
South Africa
- 1Steven Kitshoff
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Manie Libbok-3.8
- 11Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 15Damian Willemse-5.4
Replacements
- 16Deon Fourie
- 17Ox Nché-5.2
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 21Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 22Handré Pollard-4.0
- 23Willie le Roux+4.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 60.0% | Possession | 40.0% |
| 63.0% | Territory | 37.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 520m | Carry metres | 424m |
| 13 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 43 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 13 | Offloads | 2 |
| 156 | Passes | 82 |
Defence
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 92 | Tackles made | 158 |
| 81.0% | Tackle success | 71.0% |
| 12 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 43 |
| 7 | Dominant tackles | 13 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 5 |
| 56.0% | Scrum success | 88.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 103 | Rucks won | 56 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kicks from hand | 27 |
| 773m | Kick metres | 736m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.