Scotland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 20
10 February 2024Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v France
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 4.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 9.4 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 7Rory Darge(c)-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell(c)-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu(c)-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Kyle Rowe+7.4
- 15Harry Paterson
Replacements
- 16Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 17Alec Hepburn
- 18Elliot Millar-Mills-4.6
- 19Sam Skinner-0.5
- 20Andy Onyeama-Christie
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Ben Healy
- 23Cameron Redpath
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Cameron Woki-3.5
- 5Paul Gabrillagues
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt(c)+5.6
- 9Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Jonathan Danty+3.7
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Julien Marchand+1.9
- 17Sébastien Taofifénua
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Posolo Tuilagi
- 20Alexandre Roumat
- 21Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 22Nolann Le Garrec-10.8
- 23Yoram Moefana+7.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 44.0% | Territory | 56.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 148m | Carry metres | 135m |
| 2 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 1 | Defenders beaten | 9 |
| 2 | Offloads | 1 |
| 46 | Passes | 43 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Tackles made | 43 |
| 78.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 9 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 3 | Dominant tackles | 4 |
| 1 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 50.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 1 |
| — | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| — | Scrums won | 1 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 29 | Rucks won | 27 |
| 3 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Kicks from hand | 10 |
| 379m | Kick metres | 369m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 3 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 3 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.