Scotland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
30 – 21
24 February 2024Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v England
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 1.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.4 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Rory Darge(c)-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell(c)-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu(c)-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 17Alec Hepburn
- 18Elliot Millar-Mills-4.6
- 19Sam Skinner-0.5
- 20Andy Onyeama-Christie
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Ben Healy
- 23Cameron Redpath
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George(c)-3.9
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 6Ethan Roots
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Elliot Daly-1.4
- 12Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Tommy Freeman
- 15George Furbank
Replacements
- 16Theo Dan-3.8
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19George Martin+7.1
- 20Chandler Cunningham-South
- 21Ben Spencer-1.4
- 22Fin Smith+5.1
- 23Immanuel Feyi-Waboso+0.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.