Japan v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 52
22 June 2024MUFG Stadium, Tokyo
What the model says about Japan v England
- Kick-off
- 05:50 UTC
- Elevation
- 27 m
- Temperature
- 24.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.0 mm
- Wind
- 38 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Japan
- 1Takayoshi Mohara
- 2Mamoru Harada
- 3Shuhei Takeuchi
- 4Sanaila Waqa
- 5Warner Dearns
- 6Michael Leitch
- 7Tiennan Costley
- 8Faulua Makisi
- 9Naoto Saitō
- 10Seungsin Lee
- 11Koga Nezuka
- 12Tomoki Osada
- 13Samisoni Tua
- 14Jone Naikabula
- 15Yoshitaka Yazaki
Replacements
- 16Atsushi Sakate
- 17Shogo Miura
- 18Keijiro Tamefusa
- 19Amanaki Saumaki
- 20Kai Yamamoto
- 21Shinobu Fujiwara
- 22Rikiya Matsuda
- 23Takuya Yamasawa
England
- 1Bevan Rodd
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Martin+7.1
- 6Chandler Cunningham-South
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10Marcus Smith-0.6
- 11Tommy Freeman
- 12Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Immanuel Feyi-Waboso+0.6
- 15George Furbank
Replacements
- 16Theo Dan-3.8
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19Charlie Ewels-2.7
- 20Tom Curry+0.8
- 21Harry Randall
- 22Fin Smith+5.1
- 23Tom Roebuck
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Japan | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Japan | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.