Argentina v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 25
13 July 2024Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires
What the model says about Argentina v France
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 25 m
- Temperature
- 3.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Eduardo Bello
- 4Franco Molina+6.3
- 5Lucas Paulos
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 9Lautaro Bazan Velez-15.1
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Santiago Cordero-1.8
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 18Lucio Sordoni
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Pedro Rubiolo
- 21Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 22Tomas Albornoz+6.7
- 23Matias Orlando-3.8
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 2Gaëtan Barlot
- 3Georges-Henri Colombe
- 4Mickaël Guillard
- 5Baptiste Pesenti
- 6Lenni Nouchi
- 7Judicaël Cancoriet
- 8Jordan Joseph
- 9Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 10Antoine Hastoy
- 11Lester Etien
- 12Antoine Frisch
- 13Émilien Gailleton
- 14Théo Attissogbé+6.2
- 15Léo Barré
Replacements
- 16Teddy Baubigny
- 17Sébastien Taofifénua
- 18Demba Bamba-4.4
- 19Posolo Tuilagi
- 20Romain Briatte
- 21Killian Tixeront
- 22Baptiste Jauneau
- 23Léo Berdeu
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.